i forgot to mention this, but the btu to btu equivalent of nat gas to crude oil right now is about 2X what it “should” be if the two commodities were freely convertible across all uses, consumer and industrial.

They aren’t.

There are lots of reasons that crude trades at higher than the 6x (rough) equiv of what a strict btu to btu conversion should dictate. However, when it gets this extreme, it *can* signal the potential for there to be pressure on one commodity or the other (nat gas up or crude oil down) in the intermediate term.

my (big oil) energy play has been COP (Conoco Philips) for years and has a pretty healthy mix of both (nat gas and crude) however, it also has a geopolitical risk profile that gives me ulcers when the position is too big — so i’m forced to keep it quite small.

fB